The Domino Effect: Economy

KATE ROBERTS: In a few years’ time, the workforce population in India will outnumber the Chinese work force. How do you see this shift affecting the global economy, if at all?

ROBERT GREENHILL: It depends whether the growth in the number of people becomes reflected in the number of attendees in primary schools, high schools and eventually universities. If India ends up having the same number of high school graduates as China, it could have a tremendous impact in terms of the economic growth of India as a major source of consumption, production and innovation. If there isn’t the increase in education, China will continue to outstrip India well into the foreseeable future. The challenge up until recently has been that it’s a two-speed development where urban areas have had increasing levels of education but significant rural areas still lag behind many other countries.

KR: Countries with persistently high birth rates, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, are also the world’s most stagnant economies. Do you see a connection between high birth rates and low economic productivity?

RG: Absolutely. First of all, with a higher number of children in a family, it’s more difficult to provide resources for each person to develop fully, especially because higher birth rates tend to be associated with poorer sectors of the population. Secondly, high fertility leads to scarce resources for the country as a whole because agricultural resources are being split into smaller holdings, reducing the overall efficiency of the output. High fertility makes it very difficult for these countries to enjoy the economic growth that would come from the demographic dividend of a youthful population with fewer children per family.

KR: In these states it’s so important for families to get access and options for family planning.

RG: Sure. The empowerment of women and families – choices of how many children to have and when to have them – and the full support for those children to get the pre- and postnatal care and education they deserve is fundamental to the economic growth of these countries.

KR: What can a platform like the World Economic Forum do to raise awareness around issues relating to population growth and family planning?

RG: Our role is to be a convener so different stakeholders can hear important issues and debate their consequences. We have a very active global agenda council focused on the issue of population growth that shares its views within the Forum community and more broadly as well. We also deal in many of our regional summits specifically on the issue of demographics. There’s no doubt there can be sensitivity around this issue but those are there around many other issues that we try to address, such as sustainability and climate change. In these cases our role is to provide a platform for these critical issues to be debated.

KR: Governments are increasingly calling on the private sector to help solve public health issues. What role can the corporate world play in addressing global challenges related to population growth?

RG: Accelerating economic opportunity and education are ways to both encourage reduced fertility and produce economic growth. Corporations have a very important role to play there by helping to accelerate the development of many of these poor communities.